Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone predicted to be 6th largest on record

 The Gulf of Mexico summer hypoxia forecasts are based on average May total nitrogen (TN) loads from the Mississippi River basin. The load, recently released by USGS, is 6810 metric tons per day, lower than 2008, but above average from 1979 to 2008. Based on that estimate, we predict the size of this summer’s hypoxic zone to be 19,000 square kilometers (95% credible interval as 17,100 to 22,000), the 6th highest since measurements began in 1985. Continued high flows in June, beyond the period used for the forecasts, suggest the actual size may be near the higher end of the forecast range. For the full forecast report, see http://sitemaker.umich.edu/scavia/files/2009_gulf_of_mexico_hypoxic_forecast_and_observation.pdf