CHRP 2005: Watershed-Estuary-Species Nutrient Susceptibility
Assessing susceptibility and ecological effects of nutrient delivery on Atlantic and Gulf coast estuarine systems
Background
Degradation of marine ecosystems is quickly becoming apparent for up to 2/3 of the coastal systems in the U.S; this trend is likely to continue due to expected future development and various other anthropogenic stresses. Recent research findings suggest that human impacts alone account for significant deterioration of up to 90% for important area species, erosion of physical coastline, water quality and species habitat (Lotze.et al, Science, 23 June 2006). Enhancing the models that predict relative susceptibility, and consider economic scenarios and outcomes, will enable scientists and policy makers to more precisely determine how best to protect and restore vulnerable ecosystems. Additionally, a comprehensive focus on the hydrological cycle and current trends in land use that includes both watershed and nutrient input will inform analyses on short and long term ecological impacts.
Project Objectives
The objective of CHRP is to assess estuarine systems of the U.S East Coast and Gulf areas in order to determine which areas are most susceptible to changes in nutrient input. This project will model environmental and economic impacts of land use changes. An initial key outcome will be an enhanced understanding of the hydrology of these unique areas and a refinement of modeling techniques. Through the objectives, this project will enable much more accurate forecasting and long term planning for the protection and uses of estuarine areas. The three main objectives are:
- Refine existing models of environmental and economic effects of land use, nutrient management and climate change on nutrient flux to estuaries
- Develop a classification system based on refinement of models
- Develop indicators to explain variations in upper trophic levels
This research is funded by the Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research, Coastal Ocean Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.